WN8: Appendix A

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WN8 variability vs tier played

Here is an example, authored by Praetor77 and juicebar (who brought up the issue of how WN8 varies over time according to tier played), for how variability and tiers have effects in WN8. If you aren’t capable of reading and internalizing math, then just skip to the TL;DR.

For simplicity this example only deals with one stat, damage, although of course WN8 would also take into account frags, defense, spots and winrate. Let us say in the past you have played 1000 games each in a Pz.Kpfw. 38H 735 (f) (300 average damage, below the expected value of 352) and 1000 games on a D1 (241 average damage, same as expected damage).

Total damage: 1000*300 + 1000*241
Total damage: 541000
Expected total damage: 1000*352 + 1000*241
Expected total damage: 352000 + 241000
Expected total damage: 593000
rDAMAGE: = DAMAGE/expectedDAMAGE = 541000/593000 = 0.912
rDAMAGEc = (rDAMAGE – 0.22) / (1 - 0.22) = 0.89

Over time, your skill has increased and matured, and now you are capable of playing all tanks well enough to reach expected damage values.

Scenario 1: Keep playing a D1

Play 1000 more games in a D1. Still doing 241 average damage (same as top players average).

Total damage: 1000*300 + 1000*241 + 1000*241
Total damage: 300000 + 241000 + 241000
Total damage: 782000
Expected total damage: 1000*352 + 1000*241 + 1000*241
Expected total damage: 352000 + 241000 + 241000
Expected total damage: 834000
rDAMAGE: = DAMAGE/expectedDAMAGE = 782000/834000 = 0.937
rDAMAGEc = (rDAMAGE – 0.22) / (1 - 0.22) = 0.92

Scenario 2: Play an IS-6

Play 1000 games in an IS-6. Doing 1415 average damage (same as expected damage).

Total damage: 1000*300 + 1000*241 + 1000*1415
Total damage: 300000 + 241000 + 1415000
Total damage: 1956000
Expected total damage: 1000*300 + 1000*241 + 1000*1415
Expected total damage: 352000 + 241000 + 1415000
Expected total damage: 2008000
wn8alpha2 damage: 1690*.71*2970000/3029000
rDAMAGE: = DAMAGE/expectedDAMAGE = 782000/834000 = 0.974
rDAMAGEc = (rDAMAGE – 0.22) / (1 - 0.22) = 0.967

This is simple math. If you add the same value to the numerator and denominator (playing a tank at exactly the expected damage value), the resulting ratio will be bigger, while the added value is larger. We could make a million different examples, but all this is saying is that your average damage ratio and your WN8 changes faster (in fewer games) if you use higher tier vehicles. If you played enough games on D1 to do the same total damage as 1000 games on IS6, your rDAMAGEc and WN8 in both cases would be identical – but the D1 would take almost 6 times as many games


Trying to explain this more clearly, if your present skill level is well above what is reflected in your average stats, your rating will change to reflect your present skill level faster ( in less games) if you play high tier tanks, than if you play low tier tanks. This is true as long as your playing level in high tier tanks is just as good as your playing level in low tier tanks. This goes both ways. If you are consistently playing worse than your average, your WN8 will drop quicker if you play high tier tanks than if you play low tier tanks. If your skill level at present is about the same and has remained constant throughout your playing of your account, your WN8 should not change much, regardless of your choice of tanks